by By Susanna Twidale
LONDON (Reuters) – Global oil and gas demand could rise by 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. It departs from its previous expectations of a rapid transition to cleaner fuels and predicts the world is unlikely to meet climate targets.
The IEA, the West’s energy security regulator, is under pressure from the US. In recent years, President Donald Trump has called on American companies to further expand oil and gas production and focus on clean energy policies.
Under Joe Biden’s administration, the IEA predicted global oil demand would peak this decade and said no further investment in oil and gas would be needed if the world wants to meet its climate target.
Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright has described the IEA’s peak demand forecasts as “nonsensical”. The IEA is funded by member countries, with the United States making the largest contribution. Its analysis and data inform the energy policies of governments and companies around the world.
EXISTING POLICY, NO CLIMATE GOALS
In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA forecast that under a current policy scenario, oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up about 13% from consumption in 2024.
Global energy demand was forecast to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035 – a 15% increase from current levels.
The current policy scenario takes into account existing government policies and does not reflect efforts to achieve climate goals.
The IEA last used the “current policy scenario” for its forecasts in 2019, switching to forecasts more in line with a transition to clean energy and a promise to achieve net-zero emissions from 2020 by mid-century.
This year’s outlook dispensed with the promise scenario.
The IEA said it had planned to assess new country climate targets for 2031-2035, but not enough countries had submitted those plans to paint a meaningful picture.
In the IEA’s stated policy scenario, which takes into account proposed but not necessarily adopted policies, oil demand peaks around 2030.
The IEA says its scenarios examine a range of possible outcomes under various assumptions and are not forecasts.
LNG CAPACITY INCREASE
Final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas projects rose sharply in 2025, the report said. Around 300 billion cubic meters of new annual LNG export capacity will begin operations by 2030, representing a 50% increase in available supply.
Under the current policy scenario, the global LNG market will grow from around 560 billion m3 in 2024 to 880 billion m3 in 2035 and to 1,020 billion m3 in 2050, driven by increasing demand in the energy sector driven by the growth of data centers and AI.
